Polymarket's Iran Airspace Bet: 51.5% Probability or 48.5% Noise?
Over the past 48 hours, Polymarket’s ‘Iran to close airspace by Aug 31’...
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Over the past 48 hours, Polymarket’s ‘Iran to close airspace by Aug 31’...
On a quiet Tuesday afternoon, the French National Gambling Authority (ANJ)...
The 27.5% Signal: Deconstructing Prediction Markets as Geopolitical Oracles...
The charts whisper a quiet certainty. On-chain prediction markets, those...
The line on Polymarket reads 89.5%. Not a forecast, not a poll. It is a price...
Polymarket odds for Mitch McConnell resigning before 2025 just spiked 15% in ...
Last Sunday evening, I was sitting in my apartment in Amsterdam, watching the...
The code does not lie; it only waits to be read. At 20:34 UTC on the evening ...
Markets lie, but liquidity tells the truth. Over the past 72 hours,...
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The announcement landed like a dull thud. Polymarket, the prediction market...
Tracing the static in the protocol’s genesis block, I often find the most...
Hook A single sentence from an unnamed staffer last week triggered a flurry o...
Polymarket shows a 52% probability for CLARITY Act passage. Up from 44% last...
The scoreline was 3-0. Hanwha Life Esports swept G2 Esports in MSI 2026 upper...
The odds of a leadership change in Iran surged 300% on Polymarket within four...
Fear
Market Sentiment
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
Team and early investor shares released
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
Block reward halving event
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
92 million ARB released
Bitcoin Season